Welcome to our weekly market analysis from forexcracked.com! This is our first article in this series, so I’ll give you a quick rundown before we dive into the main content.

This article isn’t about telling you when to buy or sell. Instead, it’s about showing you how to approach the market. Every day, I go through the same process before I start trading. Here, I’ll briefly discuss the technical side of what’s happening.

The best way to learn something is by start doing it. So, let’s get started!

Upcoming Events for This Week

These events include macro economic reports, economic indicators, and generally whats going on in the world. Only the most important ones are considered here. You can check forexfactory for all the events.

6/5/2024

Monday doesn’t seem to have any significant events, but it’s worth noting that banks in the UK are closed for the holiday. This means GBP pairs might experience lower liquidity, possibly leading to higher volatility compared to usual days.

7/5/2024

The Reserve Bank of Australia is releasing its Monetary Policy Statement. This is a highly volatile news event for AUD pairs.

9/5/2024

Germen, French and Swiss Banks are closed for the holiday. Just like you read above, EUR & CHF pairs will have lower liquidity because of the banks are closed.

Bank of England releasing its Monetary Policy Statement, So it will be a volatile day for GBP pairs.

10/5/2024

For Canada, the unemployment rate is coming out. It’s not typically a very volatile event, but since it’s an indicator for the economy, it might have some effects on CAD.

And for the US, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is coming out. its not a big event but it might have some impact.

In summary, Tuesday is significant for AUD due to its Monetary Policy Statement, while Wednesday holds importance for GBP for the same reason. Exercise caution when trading these pairs on these days.

Forex Pairs

EURUSD:

Looking at EURUSD, there’s a clear downtrend indicated by the red line. Given that the Federal Reserve isn’t likely to cut interest rates anytime soon, a bullish turn seems improbable. We might anticipate the price to either drop from its current level to around 1.06000 or even lower to 1.04450. However, if the price breaks above that red line, it could signal a trend reversal. In that case, we could see the price rise to 1.09450 or even surpass 1.11000.

USDJPY:

Analyzing USDJPY, after reaching its all-time high around the 160 level, it experienced a sudden drop to its major support at around 152. Now, we might anticipate the price to rebound from 152 and climb back to its all-time high of 160. However, if the price breaks below the 152 level, it could potentially descend to 146 or even 140. Therefore, the breakout will determine the direction. Keep a close eye on the key price level of 152. but the overall trend is still bullish.

GBPUSD:

GBPUSD is in a challenging position. After consolidating for months, it appears to have shifted to a bearish phase. However, last Friday, the price broke above the trend line but retraced back inside the level. With the USD strengthening, the probability of GBPUSD turning bearish is high. Yet, market behavior is unpredictable.

At this juncture, we could anticipate further downward movement or a potential reversal upwards. The strongest support level stands at 1.25000. If the price falls below this level, it confirms the bearish phase. Otherwise, the situation may change. It’s crucial to refrain from trading unless you’re confident about the market direction. The decision ultimately rests with you.

USDCHF:

USDCHF is currently trading within a channel, which is a positive sign. The upward channel remains intact, suggesting that the uptrend might persist. The two lines within the channel serve as support and resistance levels for the price, keeping it confined within that range. The main concern arises when the trend breaks. As long as the trend remains unbroken, the outlook remains bullish.

USDCAD:

USDCAD appears to be in an uptrend, indicating a potential upward movement in price. Keep a close eye on the trend line, as a break in this line could signal a shift to a bearish trend. As long as the price remains above this trend line, the trend is considered bullish.

AUDUSD:

About AUDUSD, its more like mean reverting. and its currently at its strongest resistance level. if it manage to break that level, we can expect it to go all the way up to 0.68500 or even 0.69000. but if the price retraces then it can drop to 0.65000, 0.63600 or even 0.62800.

Since the monetary policy statement is coming out this Tuesday, it could really shake up this pair. So, if I were you, I wouldn’t trade this pair until after the news comes out. It’s better to wait and see what happens and only get in when you have very good confirmation.

NZDUSD:

Looking at NZDUSD, the overall trend appears to be bearish. However, it’s crucial to monitor the resistance level around 0.61000. If the price breaks above this level, it could indicate an uptrend. Conversely, if the price retraces from that level, we might anticipate a further drop in price.

Commodities

GOLD:

When there’s fear of a recession, people tend to invest in gold as a safe haven. With interest rates high, this suggests a potential uptick in gold prices. Although gold has recently corrected from its all-time high, the overall trend suggests an upward trajectory.

The strongest support for gold lies around 2150. We could expect gold to either halt its correction phase and resume an upward movement or continue falling towards the 2150 level before finding support for a potential rebound. In summary, the long-term trend for gold remains bullish, but it’s currently experiencing a medium or short-term bearish trend that could reverse at any moment.

CRUDE OIL:

Oil was previously trading within a channel, but it has recently broken downwards, indicating a shift to a bearish phase. The price could potentially decline to either 78 or even 72 levels, or it might rebound from one of these levels. However, at present, the overall trend for oil appears to be bearish.

Cryptocurrency

BTC:

Last time, after BTC reached a new high following a dip, it continued to climb. However, since March, we’ve observed a consolidation phase. It’s possible that BTC is undergoing a correction phase, preparing for another high. Moreover, the 60000 level doesn’t seem to offer strong support, as the price broke it easily and then retraced back up. If BTC is indeed in a correction phase, it could drop to the 50k range before rebounding. Alternatively, if this is just consolidation, we might see the price rise from here. The best approach is to wait for confirmation before entering large positions.

Please share your thoughts on this article: Did you find it helpful? Was it easy to understand, or do you need more information? I believe as we work on more articles together, you’ll begin to read market more easily. Thank you!

Disclaimer

It’s crucial to acknowledge the inherent unpredictability of financial markets. While we strive to offer informed perspectives on upcoming events and trends affecting various instruments, it’s important for readers to conduct their own analysis and exercise prudent judgment.

Encouragement of Independent Analysis

We strongly encourage readers to supplement the information presented here with their own research and analysis. Market dynamics can swiftly change due to a multitude of factors, and individual circumstances may vary. By conducting independent analysis, readers can tailor their strategies to align with their unique goals and risk tolerance.

No Certainty in Market Predictions

It’s vital to recognize that nobody possesses the ability to consistently predict market movements with absolute certainty. Market analysis serves as a tool to assess probabilities and identify potential opportunities, but it’s essential to remain cognizant of the inherent uncertainty in financial markets.

Aligning with High Probability

Rather than aiming for infallible predictions, our goal is to align with high-probability scenarios based on available information and analysis. This approach acknowledges the dynamic nature of markets while seeking to capitalize on opportunities with favorable risk-reward profiles.

Proceed with Caution

Lastly, while market analysis can offer valuable insights, it’s imperative to approach trading and investment decisions with caution. Markets can be volatile, and unforeseen events may impact asset prices unexpectedly. Exercise prudent risk management and consider seeking advice from qualified financial professionals before making any significant financial decisions.

Remember, the journey of financial analysis and investment is a continuous learning process, and embracing a disciplined approach can contribute to long-term success in navigating the complexities of global markets.

Please provide your feedback in the comment section below on how we can further improve our market analysis. Thank you.