Welcome to our weekly Market Forecast from forexcracked.com!

Before we continue with the analysis, if you know little about trading, charts, candlesticks, risk management, or strategies or want to improve your knowledge, consider reading our free forex course.

Upcoming Events for This Week

These events include macroeconomic reports, economic indicators, and, generally, what’s going on in the world.

Only the most important events are considered here. You can check the forexfactory.com for all the economic events and yahoo finance for news.

2024.08.26

• UK banks will be closed for the Summer Bank Holiday. Since banks handle most foreign exchange transactions, their closure makes the market less active. As a result, traders have a bigger impact, leading to unusual levels of market volatility—sometimes very low, sometimes very high.

2024.08.27

• 10:00 ET: The US CB Consumer Confidence Index will be released. The previous value was 100.3, and the forecast is 100.2. If the ‘Actual’ number is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s positive for the currency. Financial confidence is important because it signals consumer spending, which makes up most of the economic activity.
• 21:30 ET: Australia will release its CPI y/y, which measures the yearly change in the prices of goods and services bought by consumers. The forecast is 3.8%, while the previous figure was 3.4%. If the ‘Actual’ number is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s positive for the currency. Consumer prices are a key part of inflation, and higher inflation often leads the central bank to raise interest rates to control it, which can strengthen the currency.

2024.08.28

• Nothing important is happening on this day.

2024.08.29

• The German Prelim CPI m/m is being released throughout the day. This measures the monthly change in prices of goods and services bought by consumers. The previous figure was 0.3%, and the forecast is 0.0%. If the ‘Actual’ is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s good for the currency. It’s an ‘All Day’ event because the data comes from 6 German states, reporting their CPI at different times. There are two CPI releases, about 15 days apart: Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is the Eurozone’s earliest key indicator of consumer inflation. Consumer prices make up most of the inflation, and higher inflation can lead the central bank to raise interest rates to control it, which affects the currency value.
• 8:30 ET: The US Prelim GDP q/q will be released, showing the annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy. Both the previous figure and the forecast are 2.8%. If the ‘Actual’ number is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s positive for the currency. Although this is quarterly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The ‘Previous’ figure is from the advanced release, so historical data may seem unconnected. There are three GDP releases a month apart—Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and usually has the biggest impact. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and the main indicator of the economy’s health.

2024.08.30

• 5:00 ET: The EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y will be released, showing the yearly change in prices of goods and services bought by consumers. The previous figure was 2.6%, and the forecast is 2.2%. If the ‘Actual’ is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s good for the currency. Eurostat creates this estimate based on energy prices and early CPI data from 13 euro area member states. This report has two versions: Flash and Final, released about two weeks apart. The Flash report is very early and usually has a big impact. Consumer prices are a key part of inflation, and higher inflation can lead the central bank to raise interest rates, which affects currency value.
• 8:30 ET: Canada’s GDP m/m will be released, showing the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. The previous figure was 0.2%, and the forecast is 0.1%. If the ‘Actual’ number is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s good for the currency. This is the broadest measure of economic activity and the main indicator of the economy’s health.
• 8:30 ET: the US Core PCE Price Index m/m will be released. Both the previous and forecast values are 0.2%. If the ‘Actual’ number is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s good for the currency. This index measures the change in the price of goods and services bought by consumers, excluding food and energy. Unlike the Core CPI, it focuses only on items specifically consumed by individuals, with prices weighted based on total spending per item. This provides valuable insights into consumer spending habits. Although CPI was released about 10 days earlier and got more attention, the Core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s main inflation measure. Inflation is key to currency value because rising prices often lead the central bank to raise interest rates to control inflation.

Forex Market Forecast

EURUSD:

EURUSD is trending upward and is currently near the resistance level of 1.12000. Since it’s in an uptrend, the price is likely to break above this resistance and continue rising toward the 1.13000 level. However, if the price breaks below the 1.11000 level, we can expect it to drop further down to the 1.09500 level.

USDJPY:

USDJPY is in a downtrend, recently dropping from the 147 resistance level to 144. We can expect the price to continue falling to 141 for a potential reversal or pullback. If it breaks below 141, the price may keep dropping. On the other hand, watch the 146.500 resistance level—if the price breaks above it, a new uptrend could start, and the price might head toward 149.

GBPUSD:

GBPUSD is trending upward, with the price heading toward the major resistance level of 1.33000. We might see a pullback at this level, or the price could break above it and keep rising. So, keep an eye out for potential breakouts.

USDCHF:

USDCHF is trending downward, with the price dropping from the 0.85500 resistance level. We can expect it to fall to the 0.83500 range for a possible pullback or reversal. If it breaks below this level, the price might continue to drop further. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the 0.85500 resistance, an uptrend could start. So, keep an eye out for that.

USDCAD:

USDCAD is also trending down and is just above the major support level of 1.35000. If the price breaks below this level, it could continue dropping toward the 1.34000 range. However, the price might also pull back or reverse from the 1.35000 support and rise toward the 1.36000 range. So, be ready for both breakouts and reversals around 1.35000.

AUDUSD:

AUDUSD is trending up and is now at the major resistance level of 0.68000. If the price breaks above this level, it could continue rising toward the 0.68500 range. However, if it pulls back, it might drop to 0.67500. If that level breaks, it could fall further to 0.67000, and if that also breaks, a downtrend might start, leading to 0.65500.

NZDUSD:

NZDUSD is also trending up, with the price breaking above the 0.62000 resistance. We can expect the price to keep rising toward 0.63500, but be prepared for pullbacks along the way.

Commodities Market Forecast

GOLD:

Gold is trading near its all-time high levels. After a correction, the price started rising again and is now heading toward the major resistance at 2530. We might see another pullback at this level, or the price could break above it and keep going up. Keep an eye on the 2470 level—if the price breaks below it, a downtrend could start.

SILVER:

Looking at silver, the price pulled back from the major support at 26, then went above the resistance at 29. Right now, it’s consolidating between 29 and 30. If the price breaks above 30, it could keep going up toward 32. But if it breaks below 29, the price might drop further down to 26.500.

CRUDE OIL:

Crude oil is overall trending down. On the 1-hour chart, the price started rising from the 76 support level and is now above 79. The next major resistance is around 82, and we can expect the price to move toward this level, but there may be pullbacks along the way.

Cryptocurrency Market Forecast

BTC:

Looking at Bitcoin, it’s starting to rise again, with the price above 60000. Right now, it’s consolidating between the 63000 support and 65000 resistance levels. If the price breaks above the resistance, it could keep going up. But if it breaks below the support, the price might continue to drop.

ETH:

ETH is following a similar pattern. It started rising from the 2560 support and is now consolidating between 2720 and 2840. If the price breaks above 2840, it could continue up toward the 2880 level. On the other hand, if it breaks below 2720, the price might drop toward 2680. With each breakout, the price is likely to keep moving in that direction.

BNB:

BNB is mostly consolidating. The price pulled back from the 600 resistance and is now at the 575 support. If the price breaks below this support, it could keep dropping toward 550. On the other hand, the price might also start going back up from 575 to 600 again.

Conclusion & Disclaimer

This analysis article isn’t about telling you when to buy or sell. It’s about teaching you how to approach the market effectively. Every day, I follow the same routine before I start trading. Here, I briefly explained the technical aspects of what’s happening and what actions I take in these situations. Your goal is to understand what I do so you can follow the same process on your own.

The market can change its behavior without notice, so it’s best to analyze it every day. The ForexCracked version covers all the important assets in details for the week in one article. Meanwhile, the xlearn version focuses more on daily analysis for day traders. If you want to follow daily analysis for Forex, US Stocks & Cryptocurrencies check out this section on xlearnonline.com

Please provide your feedback in the comment section below on how we can further improve our market forecast. Thank you.

Acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of financial markets is crucial. While we strive to offer informed perspectives on upcoming events and trends affecting various instruments, readers should conduct their own analysis and exercise prudent judgment.

Encouragement of Independent Analysis

We strongly encourage readers to supplement the information presented here with their own research and analysis. Market dynamics can swiftly change due to many factors, and individual circumstances may vary. By conducting independent analysis, readers can tailor their strategies to align with their unique goals and risk tolerance.

No Certainty in Market Predictions

It’s vital to recognize that nobody possesses the ability to consistently predict market movements with absolute certainty. Market Forecast serves as a tool to assess probabilities and identify potential opportunities, but it’s essential to remain cognizant of the inherent uncertainty in financial markets.

Aligning with High Probability

Rather than aiming for infallible predictions, our goal is to align with high-probability scenarios based on available information and analysis. This approach acknowledges the dynamic nature of markets while seeking to capitalize on opportunities with favorable risk-reward profiles.

Proceed with Caution

Lastly, while market forecasts can offer valuable insights, it’s imperative to cautiously approach trading and investment decisions. Markets can be volatile, and unforeseen events may impact asset prices unexpectedly. Exercise prudent risk management and consider seeking advice from qualified financial professionals before making any significant financial decisions.

Remember, the journey of financial analysis and investment is a continuous learning process, and embracing a disciplined approach can contribute to long-term success in navigating the complexities of global markets.

THANK YOU & HAPPY TRADING!!!