This Weeks Price Action Market Forecast [2024.09.02]

Welcome to our weekly market analysis from forexcracked.com!

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Upcoming Events for This Week

These events include macroeconomic reports, economic indicators, and, generally, what’s happening in the world.

Only the most important events are considered here. You can check the forexfactory.com for all the economic events and yahoo finance for news.

2024.09.02

• U.S. & Canadian banks will be closed for Labor Day. While most Forex brokers stay open for all holidays except Christmas and New Year’s Day, stock markets and banks follow slightly different holiday schedules. Since banks handle most of the foreign exchange trading, when they close, the market becomes less liquid. This makes speculators more influential, which can cause unusual low or high market volatility due to the low liquidity. This will affect USD & CAD pairs.

2024.09.03

• 2:30 ET: Switzerland releases its monthly CPI, which shows the change in the prices of goods and services consumers buy. The previous figure was -0.2%, and the forecast is 0.1%. If the actual number is higher than the forecast, it’s positive for the currency. This CPI report is one of the earliest major inflation data from any country, coming just days after the month ends. Since consumer prices make up most of the overall inflation, inflation is key to currency value because rising prices may lead the central bank to raise interest rates to control inflation. This will affect CHF pairs.
• 3:00 ET: Switzerland releases its quarterly GDP, showing the change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy, adjusted for inflation. Both the previous and forecasted figures are 0.5%. If the actual number is higher than the forecast, it’s positive for the currency. GDP is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and the main indicator of the economy’s health. This will affect CHF pairs.
• 21:30 ET: Australia releases its quarterly GDP, showing the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. The previous figure is 0.1%, and the forecast is 0.2%. If the actual number is higher than the forecast, it’s positive for the currency. GDP is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and the key indicator of the economy’s health. This will affect AUD pairs.

2024.09.04

• 9:45 ET: The Bank of Canada (BOC) will release its Rate Statement and Overnight Rate. This rate is the interest at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds to each other. The previous rate was 4.50%, and the forecast is 4.25%. If the actual rate is higher than the forecast, it’s positive for the currency. While the rate decision is often already reflected in the market, the BOC Rate Statement, which looks ahead to the future, usually has a bigger impact. This will affect CAD pairs.
• 10:30 ET: The Bank of Canada (BOC) will hold a press conference with the BOC Governor and Senior Deputy Governor. The conference has two parts: first, a prepared statement is read, then it’s open to press questions. These questions often lead to unscripted answers, which can cause significant market volatility. The conference is webcasted on the BOC website. This press conference is one of the main ways the BOC communicates with investors about monetary policy, discussing the factors behind the recent interest rate decision, like the economic outlook and inflation, and giving hints about future monetary policy. This will affect CAD pairs.
• 22:00 ET: RBA Governor Bullock will speak at the Anika Foundation in Sydney. Audience questions are expected. As the head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, she has the most influence over the nation’s currency value. Traders closely watch her public appearances, as she often hints at future monetary policy. This will affect AUD pairs.

2024.09.05

• There are no major events on this day.

2024.09.06

• 8:30 ET: Canada will release its Unemployment Rate, which shows the percentage of the unemployed workforce actively looking for work in the previous month. The previous rate was 6.4%, and the forecast is 6.5%. If the actual rate is lower than the forecast, it’s good for the currency. Although it’s usually seen as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important sign of overall economic health since consumer spending is closely linked to job market conditions.
• 8:30 ET: The U.S. will also release its Unemployment Rate, showing the percentage of the unemployed workforce actively looking for work in the previous month. The previous rate was 4.3%, and the forecast is 4.2%. If the actual rate is lower than the forecast, it’s good for the currency. Although often seen as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is a key sign of overall economic health since consumer spending is closely tied to job market conditions. Unemployment is also a major factor in shaping the country’s monetary policy.

Forex Market Forecast

EURUSD

EURUSD is pulling back from the 1.12000 resistance, indicating it may be in a downtrend. The price is currently at the 1.10400 support and is starting to move up. There’s resistance around 1.10800, and if the price breaks above this level, it could continue to 1.11000. If 1.11000 is also broken, we could see the start of an uptrend. However, if the price drops and breaks below the 1.10400 support level, it could continue down to 1.10000.

USDJPY

USDJPY is overall trending down, with the price currently pulling back up from the 143.500 support level. It’s now near a resistance of around 147.500. If the price breaks above this level, we can expect it to continue rising to the 149.500 range. If that level is also broken, a new uptrend could begin. On the other hand, if the price starts to drop and breaks below the 143.500 support, we can expect the downtrend to continue.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is in an uptrend overall, but the price is pulling back from the 1.32500 resistance and is currently in a corrective downtrend. The price is now near the 1.31000 support level. If the price breaks below this support, we can confirm the downtrend and expect it to drop to 1.30500. On the other hand, if the price starts to move up and breaks above the 1.32000 resistance, we can expect the uptrend to continue.

USDCHF

USDCHF is also trending down, with the price pulling back from the 0.84000 support level. Currently, the price is nearing the 0.85500 resistance. If the price breaks above this level, we can expect it to start an uptrend. On the other hand, we might see a pullback around this resistance level, with the price potentially dropping back toward 0.84000 again.

USDCAD

USDCAD is also trending down, with the price currently at the 1.34400 support and pulling back up toward the 1.35000 resistance. If the price breaks above 1.35200, we can expect a new uptrend to begin, with the price potentially heading toward 1.35700. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the 1.34400 support, we can expect it to drop toward 1.33800.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is trending up, with the price currently consolidating around the 0.68200 resistance. The price is pulling back from the 0.67500 support level. If the price breaks above the 0.68000 resistance, we can expect it to move back to 0.68200, and if that level is also broken, the price may continue toward 0.68500. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the 0.67500 support, we can expect it to drop toward 0.67000.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD is also trending up, with the price currently pulling back from the 0.63000 resistance. The price is now at the 0.62200 support. If the price breaks below this level, we can expect it to drop to 0.62000, and if that level is also broken, then it may continue down to 0.61600. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the 0.62500 resistance, we can expect it to continue rising toward 0.63000.

Commodities Market Analysis

GOLD

GOLD or XAUUSD is at high levels and trending up, with the price currently consolidating around the 2530 resistance. There is support around 2470, and if the price breaks below this support, we can expect it to drop further toward 2440. On the other hand, if the price starts to move back up and breaks above the 2530 resistance, we can expect the uptrend to continue.

SILVER

SILVER is currently consolidating, though it’s in a downtrend in the medium term. The price recently broke below 29, with the next major support being around 26. We can expect the price to drop to this support for either a pullback or a breakout. However, if the price breaks above the 29 resistance, we can expect it to move toward the 32 resistance level.

CRUDE OIL

CRUDE OIL is trending down, with the price currently at the 77 support level and major support around 76. The price is pulling back up from 77 and heading toward the 81 level. If the price breaks above 82, we can expect it to continue rising to the 83 range. On the other hand, if the price breaks below 77, we can expect it to drop to 76, and if that level is also broken, then to 75.

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

BTC

BTC is also consolidating, with the price currently above the 56500 support. There is resistance around 60000, and if the price breaks above this resistance, we can expect it to move to 61200, and if that level is also broken, then toward 63000. On the other hand, if the price breaks below 56500, we can expect it to continue dropping to 54000.

ETH

ETH is trending down. On the 1-hour chart, the price is consolidating between the 2400 support and the 2600 resistance. If the price moves above 2600, we can expect it to head toward 2850. However, if the price breaks below 2400, we can expect it to drop to 2200.

BNB

BNB is currently consolidating, with the price pulling back up from the 500 support and heading toward the 550 resistance. If the price breaks above 550, we can expect it to move up to 600. However, if the price breaks below 500, we can expect it to drop to 460.

Conclusion & Disclaimer

This analysis article isn’t about telling you when to buy or sell. It’s about teaching you how to approach the market effectively. Every day, I follow the same routine before I start trading. Here, I briefly explained the technical aspects of what’s happening and what actions I take in these situations. Your goal is to understand what I do so you can follow the same process independently.

The market can change its behavior without notice, so it’s best to analyze it daily. The ForexCracked version covers all the important assets in detail for the week in one article. Meanwhile, the xlearn version focuses more on daily analysis for day traders. If you want to follow daily analysis for Forex, US Stocks & Cryptocurrencies, check out this section on xlearnonline.com

Please provide your feedback in the comment section below on how we can improve our market analysis further. Thank you.

Acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of financial markets is crucial. While we strive to offer informed perspectives on upcoming events and trends affecting various instruments, readers should conduct their own analysis and exercise prudent judgment.

Encouragement of Independent Analysis

We strongly encourage readers to supplement the information presented here with their own research and analysis. Market dynamics can swiftly change due to a multitude of factors, and individual circumstances may vary. By conducting independent analysis, readers can tailor their strategies to align with their unique goals and risk tolerance.

No Certainty in Market Predictions

It’s vital to recognize that nobody consistently possesses the ability to predict market movements with absolute certainty. Market analysis serves as a tool to assess probabilities and identify potential opportunities, but it’s essential to remain cognizant of the inherent uncertainty in financial markets.

Aligning with High Probability

Rather than aiming for infallible predictions, we aim to align with high-probability scenarios based on available information and analysis. This approach acknowledges the dynamic nature of markets while seeking to capitalize on opportunities with favorable risk-reward profiles.

Proceed with Caution

Lastly, while market analysis can offer valuable insights, it’s imperative to approach trading and investment decisions with caution. Markets can be volatile, and unforeseen events may impact asset prices unexpectedly. Exercise prudent risk management and consider seeking advice from qualified financial professionals before making any significant financial decisions.

Remember, the journey of financial analysis and investment is a continuous learning process, and embracing a disciplined approach can contribute to long-term success in navigating the complexities of global markets.

THANK YOU & HAPPY TRADING!!!