Weekly Market Analysis [2024.06.10]

Welcome to our weekly market analysis from forexcracked.com! It’s the second week of June, and there are major news events like CPI and FOMC scheduled for Wednesday. Let’s see what the market has to tell us.

This analysis article isn’t about telling you when to buy or sell. It’s about teaching you how to approach the market effectively. Every day, I follow the same routine before I start trading. In this article, I’ll briefly explain the technical aspects of what’s happening and what actions I take in these situations. Your goal is to understand what I do so you can follow the same process on your own.

By following this article series, you can learn price action trading.

Upcoming Events for This Week

These events include macroeconomic reports, economic indicators, and, generally, what’s going on in the world. Only the most important ones are considered here. You can check the forexfactory.com for all the events.

10/06/2024

There are no major events for Monday.

11/06/2024

Around 2:00 AM, the UK will release the Claimant Count Change report. Other than that, there are no major events on Tuesday.

12/06/2024

At 2:00 AM, the UK releases its GDP report. At 8:30 AM, the US releases its CPI data. At 2:00 PM, the FOMC releases its rate statement, followed by a press conference at 2:30 PM. At 3:15 PM, BOC Governor Macklem speaks, and at 9:30 PM, Australia releases its unemployment rate. These are all high-volatility events, so it’s best to trade carefully or avoid trading altogether on this day.

13/06/2024

At 8:30 AM, the US releases its PPI and unemployment claims report, which can cause some volatility in USD pairs. Japan is also releasing its monetary policy statement on this day, which is a volatile event for JPY pairs. Other than these, there are no major events.

14/06/2024

At 10:00 AM, the US releases its Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment report, which can cause some volatility in USD pairs.

Forex

EURUSD:

Looking at EURUSD, it dropped sharply after the unemployment report on Friday. Currently, it’s trading around a support level of 1.08000, and the price is still above the red line, so we can’t say it’s in a downtrend yet. The price should continue to rise. Looking at the 1-hour chart, you can see that the price closed at the support. From this, we can expect the price to either pull back from this level and continue to rise, or it could break below that level and touch the red line before pulling back, or it could break the red line and continue falling.

Trading Setup: If tomorrow you see a reversal signal of around 1.08000, you can buy EURUSD and take the profit of around 1.08590. if the price breaks the 1.08000 level, short there and take your profit above the red line, or if the price breaks below the red line, you can short the pair and take a profit around the major support you see.

USDJPY:

Looking at USDJPY, it’s on an uptrend. Even though we’ve seen some drops, it’s still aiming for 160. On the 1-hour chart, you can see that the price broke above the resistance line around 156.500 and then pulled back to it. Now, it’s trying to move upward again, so we can expect the price to continue rising from here. However, if the price breaks below the line again, then the momentum isn’t strong, and we can anticipate further falls. So, watch out for breakouts, but overall, the trend is bullish.

Trading Setup: After the market opens, if the price remains above the support line and you spot a clear continuation pattern, you can consider buying the pair there and aim to take profit around major resistance levels like 157.500.

GBPUSD:

Checking out GBPUSD, it retraced from its resistance level, and currently, the price is trading at around the 1.27200 level. There are two supports nearby, around 1.27000 and 1.26800. What we might see is that the price is starting to rise again from its current level, or it could break that level and find support in the 1.27000 range. If the price breaks that level too, then the next support is at 1.26800. If that level also breaks, we could anticipate GBPUSD falling further.

Trading Setup: If you notice a reversal around any of the mentioned supports, you can consider buying the pair. Alternatively, if you spot a breakout and act quickly enough, you could short and aim to take profit around the next support level.

USDCHF:

Observing USDCHF, the uptrend has been disrupted. Now, the pair could either move sideways or downward. If you examine the 1-hour chart, you’ll notice that the price found support around 0.88800 and began to rise. Currently, it’s consolidating around the resistance level of 0.89600. If the price breaks above this level, we can anticipate USDCHF to continue its upward movement towards the next resistance. However, there’s also a possibility of the price pulling back from that level, considering the overall trend might be downward.

Trading Setup: If you notice a pullback around the current trading price, you could consider shorting the pair and aim to take profit around the support level.

USDCAD:

Checking out USDCAD, it’s in an uptrend. Looking at the 1-hour chart, you’ll notice that the price has broken the resistance level. We can anticipate the price to continue rising towards the next resistance level, around 1.38000. There might be a pullback there, or if the price breaks that level, then we can expect it to reach the next resistance around 1.38500.

Trading Setup: There are trading opportunities where you can buy now and aim to take profit around the next resistance level. However, the potential gain is minimal, so it might not be worthwhile.

AUDUSD:

Examining AUDUSD, it’s in a consolidation phase, and you can observe that the price has broken the support level. Therefore, we can anticipate it will decline to the next support level. On the 1-hour chart, you’ll notice that the price has closed at a support. We can expect the price to either pull back from here or it could break that level and move to the next support around 0.65600. If that level is also broken, then we can expect it to drop even further.

Trading Setup: Since the overall trend is bullish if you notice a reversal pattern around any of these support lines, you can consider buying the pair and aim to take profit around the next possible resistance levels like 0.66000 and 0.66400. Remember, if the price breaks the support, the trend is changing, and you should cut your losses.

NZDUSD:

Checking out NZDUSD, it’s on an uptrend. However, after the price reached a major resistance level around 0.62150, it pulled back and is now heading toward the support level of 0.60850. What we can anticipate from this is that the price could either pull back from this support level or it could break that level and continue dropping.

Trading Setup: If you notice a reversal around the support level of 0.60850, you could consider buying the pair and aim to take profit around major resistance levels like 0.61300. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the support line and starts trading below it, you can short the pair and aim to take a profit around the next major support level, like 0.60500.

Remember, this week is crucial for the economy as CPI data and FOMC rates are being released. All pairs will be affected by these changes. So, we might witness unexpected developments, which is normal during these times. If you want to play it safe, avoid trading on Wednesday.

THE MARKET IS GOING TO BE HIGHLY VOLATILE.

Commodities

GOLD:

Observing gold, it’s moving towards its support level around 2275. We can anticipate a price pullback there, followed by the price continuing to rise, or it could break that level and drop further. The next major support is around the 2160 level.

SILVER:

Examining silver, it’s still on an uptrend, but after reaching a high, it dropped to the support and broke below it. Now, it’s trading around its major support level around 29.000. We can expect the price to pull back from here and start rising, or it could break below that level, indicating the slope trend line of the uptrend and starting to fall further. Breaking that line would mean the price is no longer in an uptrend.

CRUDE OIL:

Looking at oil, the overall trend is bearish. Recently, it reached a support level of 77.500 and then pulled back to a resistance of around 80.500. Now, it’s starting to drop from that level. What we can expect from this is that, since it’s in an overall downtrend, the price may continue to drop to the 79.000 level, and if that level is broken, then to 77.500. However, there’s also a chance that the correction phase is still underway, so the price could break above the resistance and move to the next major resistance around 81. So, watch out for breakouts.

Cryptocurrency

BTC:

Examining BTC, it’s consolidating between the 70K and 67K range. We can anticipate an upward breakout to the resistance soon, but we don’t know exactly when that will occur. For now, the takeaway is that the price should stay between this support and resistance level of 67K and 70K. If the price breaks either of these levels, then that’s the direction the price is likely to head.

ETH:

ETH is also consolidating near its resistance level, with support around the 3700 range. What we can anticipate from this is that if the price breaks below this level, we can expect it to drop to the 3400 range or even lower. 2800 is a strong support level for the price, so it’s unlikely to break that level. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the 4000 level, we can expect it to continue going up.

BNB:

Examining BNB, after breaking the resistance level of 635, the price rose to the 725 range and then pulled back for a correction. What we can anticipate from this is that if the correction is still ongoing, the price could drop to the 635 range and start rising again from there. It could also break below that range; if it does, then we can expect it to drop even further, but that’s unlikely for now. So, keep an eye out for breakouts.

Conclusion & Disclaimer

Please provide your feedback in the comment section below on how we can further improve our market analysis. Thank you.

It’s crucial to acknowledge the inherent unpredictability of financial markets. While we strive to offer informed perspectives on upcoming events and trends affecting various instruments, it’s important for readers to conduct their own analysis and exercise prudent judgment.

Encouragement of Independent Analysis

We strongly encourage readers to supplement the information presented here with their own research and analysis. Market dynamics can swiftly change due to many factors, and individual circumstances may vary. By conducting independent analysis, readers can tailor their strategies to align with their unique goals and risk tolerance.

No Certainty in Market Predictions

It’s vital to recognize that nobody can consistently predict market movements with absolute certainty. Market analysis serves as a tool to assess probabilities and identify potential opportunities, but it’s essential to remain cognizant of the inherent uncertainty in financial markets.

Aligning with High Probability

Rather than aiming for infallible predictions, our goal is to align with high-probability scenarios based on available information and analysis. This approach acknowledges the dynamic nature of markets while seeking to capitalize on opportunities with favorable risk-reward profiles.

Proceed with Caution

Lastly, while market analysis can offer valuable insights, it’s imperative to approach trading and investment decisions with caution. Markets can be volatile, and unforeseen events may impact asset prices unexpectedly. Exercise prudent risk management and consider seeking advice from qualified financial professionals before making any significant financial decisions.

Remember, the journey of financial analysis and investment is a continuous learning process, and embracing a disciplined approach can contribute to long-term success in navigating the complexities of global markets.