Weekly Market Analysis [2024.06.30]: Key Trends and Breakouts in Forex, Commodities, and Cryptocurrencies

Hi there, Welcome to our weekly market analysis from forexcracked.com!

• EURUSD: Consolidating near the trend line with support at 1.06000 and resistance at 1.09000.
• USDCAD: In an uptrend, with support at 1.36800.
• USDJPY: Uptrend above 160 resistance, now support.
• USDCHF: Trending down but correcting near 0.90000 resistance.
• GBPUSD: Pulling back from 1.28100 resistance, heading toward 1.25000 support.
• AUDUSD: Consolidating with support at 0.65800 and resistance at 0.67000.
• NZDUSD: Broke support, heading toward 0.59000.
• XAUUSD (Gold): Trading just above the major support at 2275, with resistance around 2432.
• XAGUSD (Silver): Broke major support, now with resistance around 32.400.
• Crude Oil: Consolidating around 86, with support at 78.
• BTC (Bitcoin): Consolidating between 60000 and 62000.
• ETH (Ethereum): Trending down, with strong support at 3350.
• BNB (Binance Coin): In a downtrend, heading for support around 508.

Before we continue with the analysis, if you don’t know much about trading, charts, candlesticks, risk management, or strategies, or if you want to improve your knowledge, consider reading our free forex course.

Upcoming Events for This Week

These events include macroeconomic reports, economic indicators, and, generally, what’s going on in the world.

Only the most important events are considered here. You can check the forexfactory.com for all the economic events and yahoo finance for news.

01/7/2024

German Prelim CPI m/m data will be released throughout the day. This is a key measure for inflation and will impact EUR pairs.

Canadian banks are closed for a holiday, so expect lower liquidity and unusual volatility in CAD pairs.

At 10:00 AM ET, the US will release its ISM Manufacturing PMI, which can sometimes cause slight volatility in USD pairs.

02/7/2024

At 5:00 AM ET, the Core CPI Flash Estimate report for the Euro will be released, impacting EUR pairs as it measures inflation.

At 9:30 AM ET, Fed Chairman Powell will speak. This event is highly volatile for USD pairs, as it may provide insights into future interest rates.

03/7/2024

At 8:30 AM ET, the US will release its Unemployment Claims report, which can cause slight volatility in USD pairs.

Around 10:00 AM ET, the US will release its ISM Services PMI report, which can cause unusual volatility in USD pairs.

Around 2:00 PM ET, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released. This is a highly volatile event for USD pairs because FOMC members discuss interest rate decisions.

04/7/2024

At 2:30 AM ET, Switzerland will release its CPI index, which can cause volatility in CHF pairs as it is an important measure of inflation in Switzerland.

England’s parliamentary election is being held today. Depending on the outcome, GBP pairs will be highly volatile.

The US is celebrating Independence Day, so all banks will be closed. Expect low liquidity and high volatility. The global market will also have low liquidity, so it’s best to avoid trading today to avoid trouble.

05/7/2024

At 8:30 AM ET, Canada and the USA will release their Unemployment Rate reports for the past month. These reports cause high volatility in the corresponding currency pairs.

Forex Market Analysis

EURUSD:

Looking at EURUSD, it is consolidating around the major trend line. The major support is around 1.06000, and the major resistance is around 1.09000.

Looking at the 1-hour chart, you can clearly see the consolidation phase. After the price reached the support level, it pulled back up to a resistance, then pulled back again, and now it’s trading around that level. If the price breaks above the resistance, we can expect it to go to the next resistance and pull back from there. Alternatively, it could drop to the support and pull back again from there. Since the price is consolidating, a breakout is highly likely, and the direction of that breakout will determine the future trend, so watch out for breakouts.

USDJPY:

Looking at USDJPY, it is in an uptrend and has currently broken above the major resistance level of 160.

Looking at the 1-hour chart, you can see that after the price broke above the resistance, it pulled back to that level and started to go up. It then pulled back to the same 160 level before going up again. So, the 160 trend line now acts as support for the price. We can expect the price to continue rising to the next resistance levels, possibly to a round number. On the other hand, if the price breaks below this support, the upward momentum might not be strong, and we could see a correction.

GBPUSD:

Looking at GBPUSD, it is pulling back from the resistance around the 1.28100 level. The next support is around 1.25000.

Looking at the 1-hour chart, you can clearly see the downward trend. Right now, the price seems to be consolidating around a support level. If the price drops to the downward trend line, we could expect a pullback and the price to continue going up. On the other hand, if the price breaks below that support, we can expect it to go to the 1.25000 level.

USDCHF:

Looking at USDCHF, it should be in a downtrend. The price broke below the support around 0.90000, went down a bit, and then pulled back again. The next support is around 0.87400.

Now, looking at the 1-hour chart, you can see that the price broke above the 0.90000 level and then went back down, indicating a false breakout. Since this level now acts as resistance, we can expect the price to fall to the next support, possibly around 0.87400, with corrections along the way. Also, keep in mind that if the price breaks above 0.90000 again, the downtrend might not be strong, and we could see the price continue to rise.

USDCAD:

Looking at USDCAD, it is uptrending, with the lines on the chart acting as major support and resistance for the price.

Now, looking at the 1-hour chart, you can see that the price broke below the support line and then went back up, indicating that buying pressure is still present. We can’t confirm the breakout yet because this same scenario happened before, as shown on the chart. From this, we can expect the price to pull back from this support and go up, or it could really break below this support and start dropping. We can confirm the breakout if the price breaks below the 1.36600 level again.

AUDUSD:

Looking at AUDUSD, you can see that the price is consolidating between 0.67000 and 0.65750.

Now, looking at the 1-hour chart, you can see that the price is pulling back multiple times from the resistance around 0.66800. This means there is strong selling pressure, but buyers are also not giving up. If the price breaks above this resistance, we can expect it to go up to 0.67000 and then pull back. On the other hand, it could also drop from 0.66800 to the support around 0.65800. Keep in mind that since the overall trend is consolidating, a breakout is highly likely. The direction of the breakout will determine the future trend, so watch out for breakouts.

NZDUSD:

Looking at NZDUSD, it is pulling back from the resistance level at 0.62200 and now seems to have broken the support around 0.60800.

Looking at the 1-hour chart, you can see that the price dipped below the support and then pulled back up. If the price breaks below this line again, we can expect it to continue dropping to the next support level, which is around 0.59000, though it might pull back before reaching this level. Alternatively, the price could go up from this support level to the resistance around 0.62200, but expect corrections in both directions.

Commodities Market Analysis

GOLD:

Looking at XAUUSD, it is trading just above the major support at 2275. The major resistance for the price is around 2432.

Now, looking at the 1-hour chart, you can see that the price broke the uptrend line, went down, and pulled back to this line, finding resistance there. We can expect the price to continue dropping to the next support around 2275 before pulling back. Keep in mind, if the price breaks back above the uptrend line, the trend is still undecided, and we can expect the price to be in correction.

SILVER:

Looking at XAGUSD, it was trending up, but now it seems like it broke its major support. The major resistance for the price is around 32.400.

Looking at the 1-hour chart, you can see that after the price broke the support, it found new support around 28.700 and then pulled back. Now, the broken support acts as resistance, and the 28.700 line acts as support. If the price goes to the resistance, we can expect it to pull back to the support. On the other hand, if the price comes to this support, we can expect a pullback or a break below this level. If the price breaks below this support, we can expect it to continue dropping.

CRUDE OIL:

Looking at Brent Crude Oil, after pulling back from the support around 78, it went up to the 86 level and is now consolidating there.

Now, if we look at the 1-hour chart, you can clearly see the consolidation phase. The price broke above that level and then dropped back to it. If the price goes back above this trend line, we can expect it to continue going up. On the other hand, the price could also drop from this level to 81. Watch out for breakouts.

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

BTC:

Looking at BTC, after being in a downtrend for the last couple of days, it seems to have found support around the 60000 level and its consolidating.

Looking at the 1-hour chart, you can clearly see the consolidation phase. As long as this phase lasts, the price will stay within the 60000 to 62000 range. If the price breaks above the 62000 level, we can expect it to move to the next resistance levels shown on the chart. Each time the price breaks these resistance levels, it will aim for the next one, so watch out for breakouts. Also, if the price breaks below the 60000 range again, it is likely to go down further.

ETH:

Looking at ETH, it is also trending down. Right now, the price is at a support level of 3350.

Looking at the 1-hour chart, you can see that the 3350 level acts as strong support, as the price has bounced back up twice from it. We can expect the price to start going back up from this level to the resistance around 3475. However, if the price breaks below the 3350 level, we can expect it to fall further.

BNB:

Looking at BNB, it is in a downtrend. It broke the support around 635 and is now heading for the next support around 508.

Looking at the 1-hour chart, you can see that the price is consolidating. There is support around 570 and resistance around 585. If the price breaks either of these levels, the breakout direction will determine where the price goes next. If it breaks the support, the price will drop and may find support around the slope trend line. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the resistance level, we can expect it to continue going up. So, watch out for breakouts.

Conclusion & Disclaimer

This analysis article isn’t about telling you when to buy or sell. It’s about teaching you how to approach the market effectively. Every day, I follow the same routine before I start trading. Here, I briefly explained the technical aspects of what’s happening and what actions I take in these situations. Your goal is to understand what I do so you can follow the same process on your own.

The market can change its behavior without notice, so it’s best to analyze it every day. The ForexCracked version covers all the important assets in details for the week in one article. Meanwhile, the xlearn version focuses more on daily analysis for day traders. If you want to follow daily analysis for Forex, US Stocks & Cryptocurrencies, check out this section on xlearnonline.com

Please provide your feedback in the comment section below on how we can further improve our market analysis. Thank you.

It’s crucial to acknowledge the inherent unpredictability of financial markets. While we strive to offer informed perspectives on upcoming events and trends affecting various instruments, it’s important for readers to conduct their own analysis and exercise prudent judgment.

Encouragement of Independent Analysis

We strongly encourage readers to supplement the information presented here with their own research and analysis. Market dynamics can swiftly change due to a multitude of factors, and individual circumstances may vary. By conducting independent analysis, readers can tailor their strategies to align with their unique goals and risk tolerance.

No Certainty in Market Predictions

It’s vital to recognize that nobody possesses the ability to consistently predict market movements with absolute certainty. Market analysis serves as a tool to assess probabilities and identify potential opportunities, but it’s essential to remain cognizant of the inherent uncertainty in financial markets.

Aligning with High Probability

Rather than aiming for infallible predictions, our goal is to align with high-probability scenarios based on available information and analysis. This approach acknowledges the dynamic nature of markets while seeking to capitalize on opportunities with favorable risk-reward profiles.

Proceed with Caution

Lastly, while market analysis can offer valuable insights, it’s imperative to approach trading and investment decisions with caution. Markets can be volatile, and unforeseen events may impact asset prices unexpectedly. Exercise prudent risk management and consider seeking advice from qualified financial professionals before making any significant financial decisions.

Remember, the journey of financial analysis and investment is a continuous learning process, and embracing a disciplined approach can contribute to long-term success in navigating the complexities of global markets.

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