Weekly Market Analysis [2024.07.28]: FOMC Ahead and Bitcoin Heading Back to 72000?

Welcome to our weekly market analysis from forexcracked.com!

Before we continue with the analysis, if you don’t know much about trading, charts, candlesticks, risk management, or strategies, or if you want to improve your knowledge, consider reading our free forex course articles.

Upcoming Events for This Week

These events include macroeconomic reports, economic indicators, and, generally, what’s going on in the world.

Only the most important events are considered here. You can check the forexfactory.com for all the economic events and yahoo finance for news.

2024.07.29

Nothing important is happening on this day.

2024.07.30

The German Prelim CPI m/m will be released throughout the day. It’s listed as an ‘All Day’ event because the ‘Actual’ data comes from 6 German states reporting their CPI at different times. There are 2 versions of CPI released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is the Eurozone’s earliest major consumer inflation report. Consumer prices make up most of overall inflation. Inflation is important for currency value because rising prices usually lead the central bank to raise interest rates to control inflation.

• 10:00 ET: The US CB Consumer Confidence Index report will be released. Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which makes up most of overall economic activity. The survey includes about 3,000 households, asking them to rate current and future economic conditions, such as labor availability, business conditions, and the overall economic situation.
• 21:30 ET: The AUS CPI q/q report will be released. Consumer prices make up most of overall inflation. Inflation is important for currency value because rising prices usually cause the central bank to raise interest rates to control inflation.
• Japan is releasing its Monetary Policy Statement, but the exact time is not given. This statement is one of the main tools the BOJ uses to inform investors about monetary policy. It includes the decision on asset purchases and comments on the economic conditions that influenced the decision. Most importantly, it provides the economic outlook and hints at future decisions.

2024.07.31

• 5:00 ET: The Eurozone is releasing its Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y. This measures the change in prices of goods and services bought by consumers, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. Eurostat bases this estimate on early CPI data from 13 euro area member states. There are two versions of this report, Flash and Final, released about two weeks apart. The Flash release is the earliest and has the most impact. Consumer prices make up most of overall inflation. Inflation is important for currency value because rising prices usually lead the central bank to raise interest rates to control inflation.
• 8:30 ET: Canada is releasing its GDP m/m report. This shows the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services the economy produces. It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the main gauge of the economy’s health.
• 8:30 ET: The US is releasing its Employment Cost Index q/q. This shows the change in the cost businesses and the government pay for civilian labor. It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation because when businesses pay more for labor, they usually pass the higher costs on to consumers.
• 14:00 ET: The US is releasing its FOMC statement. This is the main tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It includes the results of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with comments on the economic conditions that influenced their decisions. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and provides hints about future votes.

2024.08.01

Swiss banks will be closed in observance of Swiss National Day.

• 7:00 ET: The Bank of England will release its Monetary Policy Statement. This report gives the BOE’s inflation and economic growth projections for the next 2 years. It offers valuable insights into the bank’s views on economic conditions and inflation, which are key factors shaping future monetary policy and influencing interest rate decisions.
• 7:30 ET: BOE Governor Bailey speaks. He will hold a press conference in London about the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. As the head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than anyone else. Traders closely watch his public appearances because he often gives subtle hints about future monetary policy.

2024.08.02

• 2:30 ET: Switzerland is releasing its CPI m/m report. This is the first major inflation data released by any country, just days after the month ends. Consumer prices make up most of overall inflation. Inflation is important for currency value because rising prices usually lead the central bank to raise interest rates to control inflation.
• 8:30 ET: The US Unemployment Rate report will be released. This shows the percentage of people who are unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month. Although it’s a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is a key signal of economic health because consumer spending is closely linked to labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major factor for those managing the country’s monetary policy.

Forex Market Analysis

EURUSD:

Looking at EURUSD, it’s trending up but currently in a correction, pulling back from the major resistance at 1.09500. On the 1-hour chart, you can see the price consolidating within a support and resistance range. If the price breaks above the resistance, the correction phase may be over, and the price could return to its uptrend. However, if the price breaks below the support level, it might drop further to the 1.06800 level, signaling the start of a downtrend.

USDJPY:

USDJPY is trending down and currently pulling back from its major support at 152. Looking at the 1-hour chart, you can see that the price pulled back to resistance around 155 and then retraced. If the downtrend is over, we can expect the price to break above this resistance and continue going up. However, if the downtrend continues, we can expect the price to go back to the support and possibly break below it, causing the price to drop further.

GBPUSD:

Looking at GBPUSD, it’s pulling back from a major resistance around the 1.30000 level. The price broke below a support and is trading below it, which strongly indicates a downtrend. To confirm this, if the price breaks below the 1.28000 level, we can be sure it’s entering a downtrend. However, watch that level for potential reversals.

USDCHF:

USDCHF is trending down. Looking at the 1-hour chart, you can see the price pulling back from a support level, with resistance just above it. If the price reaches that resistance, we can expect a reversal. However, if the price breaks above that resistance, it may continue to the next resistance level. But since the overall trend is bearish, we can expect the price to reverse from that resistance, possibly breaking below the support and continuing to drop. So, watch out for that.

USDCAD:

Looking at USDCAD, it’s trending up and currently at a major resistance level, 1.38500. We can expect the price to pull back from this level and drop to 1.36000. However, if the price breaks above this resistance, it may continue to go up.

AUDUSD:

Looking at AUDUSD, it’s in a downtrend and has broken major support levels like 0.66000. On the 1-hour chart, you can see the price pulled back from 0.65000 and is consolidating around a resistance. If the downtrend is over, we can expect the price to break above this resistance and continue going up. But if the downtrend continues, we can expect the price to start dropping from that resistance and possibly break below the major support level of 0.65000.

NZDUSD:

NZDUSD is trending down and is at the major support level of 0.58500. If the price breaks below this support, we can expect it to keep dropping. However, there’s also a chance of the price reversing from this support. So, watch for both reversal and breakout signals.

Commodities Market Analysis

GOLD:

Looking at gold, it’s pulling back from the resistance at 2480. It found support around 2360 and pulled back to 2390, where it’s currently trading. If the downtrend continues, we can expect the price to start dropping from this resistance, possibly breaking below support and continuing to 2280. However, if the price breaks above the resistance, it may continue going up to the next resistance levels. So, watch out for breakouts.

SILVER:

Looking at XAGUSD, it’s trending down and currently consolidating around the support level of 27.500. The breakout will determine the future trend. The price will continue in the direction of the breakout, so wait for the break and then confirm the trend.

CRUDE OIL:

Looking at crude oil, it’s trending down. On the 1-hour chart, you can see the price consolidating between the 83 and 80 levels. Similar to XAGUSD, the breakout will determine the future trend. The price will continue in the direction of the breakout, so wait for the breakout to confirm the trend.

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

BTC:

Looking at BTC, it’s trending up and is now above the 67000 level, which should act as support. Since the overall trend is up, we can expect the price to continue to the 72000 range. However, it could also reverse from that resistance. This week, the FOMC statement is coming out, which can cause high volatility in all financial markets, not just forex. So, watch out for that.

ETH:

ETH is just above the support level at 3200. There is resistance around the 3400 level. If the price breaks above this resistance, it can continue to the next resistance, moving higher with each breakout. However, if the price breaks below the support, it may keep dropping, possibly down to 2900.

BNB:

BNB is pulling back from a support level and is currently trading around 580. There is major resistance around 610 and major support around 510. If this pullback continues, we can expect the price to reach 610 before either pulling back or breaking out. If the price starts to drop, we can expect it to find support around 510 and either pull back or break below.

Conclusion & Disclaimer

This analysis article isn’t about telling you when to buy or sell. It’s about teaching you how to approach the market effectively. Every day, I follow the same routine before I start trading. Here, I briefly explained the technical aspects of what’s happening and what actions I take in these situations. Your goal is to understand what I do so you can follow the same process on your own.

The market can change its behavior without notice, so it’s best to analyze it daily. The ForexCracked version covers all the important assets in detail for the week in one article. Meanwhile, the xlearn version focuses more on daily analysis for day traders. If you want to follow daily analysis for Forex, US Stocks & Cryptocurrencies, check out this section on xlearnonline.com

Please provide your feedback in the comment section below on how we can improve our market analysis further. Thank you.

Acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of financial markets is crucial. While we strive to offer informed perspectives on upcoming events and trends affecting various instruments, readers should conduct their own analysis and exercise prudent judgment.

Encouragement of Independent Analysis

We strongly encourage readers to supplement the information presented here with their own research and analysis. Market dynamics can swiftly change due to many factors, and individual circumstances may vary. By conducting independent analysis, readers can tailor their strategies to align with their unique goals and risk tolerance.

No Certainty in Market Predictions

It’s vital to recognize that nobody possesses the ability to predict market movements with absolute certainty consistently. Market analysis serves as a tool to assess probabilities and identify potential opportunities, but it’s essential to remain cognizant of the inherent uncertainty in financial markets.

Aligning with High Probability

Rather than aiming for infallible predictions, our goal is to align with high-probability scenarios based on available information and analysis. This approach acknowledges the dynamic nature of markets while seeking to capitalize on opportunities with favorable risk-reward profiles.

Proceed with Caution

Lastly, while market analysis can offer valuable insights, it’s imperative to approach trading and investment decisions with caution. Markets can be volatile, and unforeseen events may impact asset prices unexpectedly. Exercise prudent risk management and consider seeking advice from qualified financial professionals before making any significant financial decisions.

Remember, the journey of financial analysis and investment is a continuous learning process, and embracing a disciplined approach can contribute to long-term success in navigating the complexities of global markets.

THANK YOU & HAPPY TRADING!!!