Weekly Market Analysis [2024.08.12]: Key Support and Resistance Levels and Trends

Welcome to our weekly market analysis from forexcracked.com!

With the US CPI report coming up this week, we have some major events unfolding. Let’s see how the markets are likely to perform. Now, let’s dive into our market analysis!

Before we continue with the analysis, if you don’t know much about trading, charts, candlesticks, risk management, or strategies, or if you want to improve your knowledge, consider reading our free forex course.

Upcoming Events for This Week

These events include macroeconomic reports, economic indicators, and, generally, what’s going on in the world.

Only the most important events are considered here. You can check the forexfactory.com for all the economic events and yahoo finance for news.

2024.08.12

• 21:30 ET: Australia will release its Wage Price Index for the quarter. This measures how much businesses and the government are paying for labor, excluding bonuses. The previous figure was 0.8%, and the forecast is 0.9%. If the ‘Actual’ number is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s positive for the currency. This index is a key indicator of consumer inflation since higher labor costs are often passed on to consumers.

2024.08.13

• 2:00 ET: England will release its Claimant Count Change, which shows the change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits from the previous month. The previous figure was 32.3K, and the forecast is 14.5K. If the ‘Actual’ number is lower than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s positive for the currency. Although it’s usually seen as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is a key signal of the economy’s overall health, as consumer spending is closely linked to job conditions. Unemployment also plays a big role in decisions about the country’s monetary policy.
• 8:30 ET: the US will release its PPI m/m, which shows the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. Both the Previous and Forecast figures are 0.2%. If the ‘Actual’ number is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s positive for the currency. This is a key indicator of consumer inflation since higher prices charged by producers often lead to higher consumer costs.
• 22:00 ET: New Zealand will release its Monetary Policy Statement. The current interest rate is 5.50%, and the forecast is also 5.50%. This statement offers important insights into the bank’s view on economic conditions and inflation, which are the main factors influencing future monetary policy and interest rate decisions. Short-term interest rates are crucial in determining currency value, and traders often use other indicators to predict future rate changes.

2024.08.14

• 2:00 ET: England will release its CPI y/y, which shows the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. The previous figure was 2.0%, and the forecast is 2.3%. If the ‘Actual’ number is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s positive for the currency. Consumer prices make up most of overall inflation. Inflation is important for currency value because rising prices often lead the central bank to raise interest rates to control inflation.
• 8:30 ET: the US will release its CPI y/y, showing the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. The previous figure is 3.0%, and the forecast is also 3.0%. If the ‘Actual’ number is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s positive for the currency. Consumer prices make up most of overall inflation, and inflation is crucial for currency value because rising prices often prompt the central bank to raise interest rates to control inflation.
• 21:30 ET: Australia will release its Unemployment Rate, which shows the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed and actively looking for work during the previous month. The previous rate was 4.1%, and the forecast is also 4.1%. If the ‘Actual’ rate is lower than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s good for the currency. While it’s often seen as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is a key sign of the economy’s health, as consumer spending is closely tied to job conditions.

2024.08.15

French and Italian banks will be closed in observance of Assumption Day. Banks facilitate the majority of foreign exchange volume. When they are closed, the market is less liquid, and speculators become a more dominant market influence. This can lead to both abnormally low and abnormally high volatility.

• 2:00 ET: England will release its GDP m/m, which measures the change in the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. The previous figure was 0.4%, and the forecast is 0.1%. If the ‘Actual’ number is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s positive for the currency. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and the main indicator of the economy’s health.
• 8:30 ET: The US will release its Retail Sales m/m, showing the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The previous figure is 0.0%, and the forecast is 0.4%. If the ‘Actual’ number is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s positive for the currency. This report provides the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending, which is the main driver of overall economic activity.
• 19:30 ET: RBA Governor Bullock will speak alongside Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, and Assistant Governor Christopher Kent before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in Canberra. As the head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, she has more influence on the nation’s currency value than anyone else. Traders closely watch her public appearances for any hints about future monetary policy.

2024.08.16

• 2:00 ET: England will release its Retail Sales m/m, showing the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. The previous figure was -1.2%, and the forecast is 0.6%. If the ‘Actual’ number is higher than the ‘Forecast,’ it’s good for the currency. Retail sales are the main measure of consumer spending, which makes up the majority of overall economic activity.

Forex Market Analysis

EURUSD:

EURUSD is pulling back from the 1.10000 resistance and is now consolidating between 1.09600 resistance and 1.09000 support. If the price breaks below this support, it could continue dropping to the 1.08600 level, and if that level is also broken, the drop might extend to 1.07800. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the 1.09600 resistance, it could rise towards the major resistance at 1.10000. If this level is broken, it may start a new uptrend, and the price could continue to rise.

USDJPY:

USDJPY was trending down, but the price has recently pulled back from the 142 support level. Now, it’s gone up and is consolidating around the 148 resistance level. If the uptrend continues, we could see the price break above 148 and rise to 151. If 151 is also broken, the price may continue to climb higher. On the other hand, if the price drops below the 145 range, it could fall to 144, and if that level breaks, it might continue down to 142. Keep an eye out for breakouts, as the price is likely to follow the direction of the breakout.

GBPUSD:

GBPUSD was trending down, but after a period of consolidation, it seems to be pulling back from the 1.26500 range. The price is now around 1.27500. If an uptrend is beginning, we can expect the price to continue rising and break above the 1.28000 resistance level, potentially heading toward 1.28500. If 1.28500 is broken, the price may continue to move upward. However, since the overall trend is bearish, we should also be prepared for possible reversals around these resistance levels.

USDCHF:

USDCHF was trending down, but on the 1-hour chart, it now seems to be starting an uptrend. The price is currently rising, with major resistance around the 0.87500 range. We can expect the price to either reach this level and pull back or break above it and continue up to the next resistance at 0.88000.

USDCAD:

USDCAD was pulling back from the 1.39500 resistance level and is now consolidating between the 1.37500 resistance and 1.37250 support range. Since this is a consolidation phase, we can only determine the future trend after a breakout. If the price breaks below the support, it could continue dropping to 1.36000. If the price breaks above the resistance, it could rise to 1.38000, and if that level is also broken, it might continue up to the 1.38500 range.

AUDUSD:

AUDUSD was trending down, but it’s currently pulling back up from the 0.63500 range. The price is now around 0.66000. If the uptrend continues, we can expect the price to break above 0.66000 and move toward 0.67000. On the other hand, if the price drops below 0.65500, it could continue falling to 0.65000, and if that level is also broken, the price may keep moving in the direction of the breakout.

NZDUSD:

NZDUSD, after trending down for a while, has started to move up from the 0.59000 range. The price is now near the 0.60500 resistance and is pulling back. If the uptrend continues, we can expect the price to break above this level and move toward 0.61500. However, if this was just a correction, the price might reverse from the 0.60500 resistance and head back down toward 0.59000.

Commodities Market Analysis

GOLD:

Gold is trading near its all-time high levels. The price has pulled back up from the 2380 support range and is now around the 2440 level. If the uptrend continues, the price could break above this level and move toward the major resistance at 2480. However, it could also reverse from the 2440 level, so keep an eye on that as well.

SILVER:

Silver is pulling back up from its major support level at 26.500. The price is now at the 27.750 resistance and consolidating. If the price breaks above this resistance, it could continue rising toward the 29 range. However, if the price drops below the 27.250 support, it could fall back to the 26.500 range.

CRUDE OIL:

Oil is pulling back up from the major support level at 76.000. The price is now approaching the 83 resistance level. We can expect the price to either reach this level and pull back or break above it and continue rising.

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

BTC:

BTC has been consolidating for a long time, moving between uptrends and downtrends with uncertainty. After reaching 64000, it consolidated for a few days, then broke below the 60000 range and is now trading lower. We can expect the price to continue dropping toward the 56000 range, and if that level is also broken, the drop could continue. However, it might also reverse, so be prepared for both possibilities.

ETH:

ETH was trending down, but it pulled back up and is now dropping from the 2700 resistance level. The price is currently at a support level of 2550. If it breaks below this level and reaches 2500, the price could continue to drop. On the other hand, if the price breaks above 2700, we could see a new uptrend begin.

BNB:

BNB is pulling back up from the 400 support level. The price reached 540 resistance and is now reversing. There’s support around the 500 level. If the price breaks below this level, the downtrend could continue, leading to further drops. However, if the price breaks above 540, we can expect it to keep rising, confirming the uptrend.

Conclusion & Disclaimer

This analysis article isn’t about telling you when to buy or sell. It’s about teaching you how to approach the market effectively. Every day, I follow the same routine before I start trading. Here, I briefly explained the technical aspects of what’s happening and what actions I take in these situations. Your goal is to understand what I do so you can follow the same process on your own.

The market can change its behavior without notice, so it’s best to analyze it every day. The ForexCracked version covers all the important assets in details for the week in one article. Meanwhile, the xlearn version focuses more on daily analysis for day traders. If you want to follow daily analysis for Forex, US Stocks & Cryptocurrencies check out this section on xlearnonline.com

Please provide your feedback in the comment section below on how we can further improve our market analysis. Thank you.

Acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of financial markets is crucial. While we strive to offer informed perspectives on upcoming events and trends affecting various instruments, readers should conduct their own analysis and exercise prudent judgment.

Encouragement of Independent Analysis

We strongly encourage readers to supplement the information presented here with their own research and analysis. Market dynamics can swiftly change due to a multitude of factors, and individual circumstances may vary. By conducting independent analysis, readers can tailor their strategies to align with their unique goals and risk tolerance.

No Certainty in Market Predictions

It’s vital to recognize that nobody possesses the ability to predict market movements with absolute certainty consistently. Market analysis serves as a tool to assess probabilities and identify potential opportunities, but it’s essential to remain cognizant of the inherent uncertainty in financial markets.

Aligning with High Probability

Rather than aiming for infallible predictions, our goal is to align with high-probability scenarios based on available information and analysis. This approach acknowledges the dynamic nature of markets while seeking to capitalize on opportunities with favorable risk-reward profiles.

Proceed with Caution

Lastly, while market analysis can offer valuable insights, it’s imperative to approach trading and investment decisions cautiously. Markets can be volatile, and unforeseen events may impact asset prices unexpectedly. Exercise prudent risk management and consider seeking advice from qualified financial professionals before making any significant financial decisions.

Remember, the journey of financial analysis and investment is a continuous learning process, and embracing a disciplined approach can contribute to long-term success in navigating the complexities of global markets.

THANK YOU & HAPPY TRADING!!!